5月18日棉花日?qǐng)?bào)

Daily worldwide cotton market report
May 19, 2019 (Global)
 
http://www.fibre2fashion.com/News/textile-news/newsdetails.aspx?news_id=72715&page=2

Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 57.55 with a gain of 125 points, the October 09 closed at 59.62 with a gain of 135 points, while the December 09 closed at 60.38 with a gain of 131 points. The cotlook A index declared settled at 60.90 with a loss of 130 points today.

The spot rate of KCA moved once again towards a new high and the settlement declared at Rs. 3750/=, with an increase of Rs. 50/= today. In the domestic market today 1000 bales of Noor Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=, 600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan sold at Rs. 3800/=, 400 bales of Haroon Abad sold at Rs. 3700/=, 500 bales of Peer Mahal sold at Rs. 3525/=, 2047 bales of Liaquat Pur sold at Rs. 3600/=, 1600 bales of Rahim Yar Khan at Rs. 3700/=.

Investor buying enthusiasm to the first USDA Supply/Demand forecast for the 09/10 marketing year shifted by mid week after the U.S. April retail sales were released on Wednesday and showed less of a decline than March, but a decline nevertheless. The decline accelerated on Friday after news circulated that the Chinese government was preparing to release between 500,000 and 700,000 tons of cotton reserves for auction as early as next week.

The lack of any renewed U.S. export inquiry coupled with momentum extremes to the upside aided the precipitous decline on Friday. Open interest increased 7,875 contracts on the week's trade to leave 139,150 contracts open as of Thursday's close.

The CFTC reported that as of May 12th, funds were long 16.0% in futures only up from 15.1% long the previous week. Fund longs increased by 4,063 contracts and shorts increased by 1,313 contracts. Total fund longs now total 39,352 contracts versus shorts totaling 17,356 contracts.

U.S. cotton under lean as of May 12th was 563,241 down 346,618 bales. There were 250,865 bales under Form A and 502,974 bales under Form G.

According to IBD, industrial production fell 0.5% in April, which was the smallest decline in six months. "Actual output hit a 10-year low as capacity utilization fell to the lowest on record." The New York manufacturing index in May rose to -4.55 from April's -14.65 and March's record low -38.23.

We still suggest that the general commodity price environment will be dictated by the trend in U.S. equity prices. Fund managers will continue to use the leading economic barometer to forecast the pace of the economic recovery. Stock values have soared 37% from the March 9th low to the May 8th close. The fear is that current stock valuations may be overstating companies' abilities to generate earnings to justify the current P.E. ratios.

This concern was magnified by the weaker than expected report on retail sales last week. The bright spot over the past two quarters is that companies have slashed capital spending by the most since the 1930s and eliminated inventories for six quarters in a row, including the largest liquidation on record last quarter.

The massive reversal down last week would signal the completion of the 10-week rally. While the setback late last seek has down much to correct the heavily overbought conditions, the reversal down caps the rally and points the near term trend down. With the momentum more neutral, it would allow the cotton market to recover some of Friday's decline without reversing the potential for a more significant correction.
 
The market does not seem to have the commercial support under the market to slow the sharp break which was sparked by the extreme overbought condition of the market and from ideas that China will soon release some of their strategic reserves. The general concept that cotton was undervalued compared with other commodity markets was the theme of the recent rally and fund traders were aggressive buyers in the past two months. China's top planning body indicated that they are ready to release some of the reserves but did not give a schedule but traders believe some of the 2.72 million tonnes of cotton could begin to move on their domestic market by the end of the month.

The market pushed sharply lower on the session on Friday and July cotton moved to the lowest level since May 1st as weakness in energy and stock markets and concerns of slower demand after the recent run-up in prices helped spark the selling. Ideas that the market is overbought and a noticeable decline in weekly export sales last week helped to pressure. The new highs for the move on Tuesday with a reversal day combined with the lower close on the week could attract additional technical selling early this week.

The Commitment-of-Traders reports showed the market with a positive tilt as trend-following funds build a more significant net long position but index fund selling is a concern for the bulls. Trend-following funds were net buyers of 4,709 contracts to build a net long of 27,150 contracts. This was in sharp contracts to index fund traders who reduced their net long position by 2,082 contracts to 56,650 contracts. The chart pattern is negative and the market does not seem to have the short-term fundamental news to slow the selling.

Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The market back below the 18-day moving average suggests the intermediate-term trend could be turning down. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number.
 

                                5月18日棉花日?qǐng)?bào)

      5月18日紐約棉花期貨交易所，0709合約收于每磅57.55美分，上漲125點(diǎn)；1009合約收于59.62美元/磅，漲135點(diǎn)，同時(shí)1209合約上漲131點(diǎn)，收盤價(jià)在60.38美元/磅。美國棉花展望指數(shù)（cotlook A）漲130點(diǎn)，收于每磅60.90美元。

      卡拉奇棉花交易所(KCA)棉花現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格再創(chuàng)新高，價(jià)格在每包3750盧比左右，上漲50盧比。就國內(nèi)市場而言， Noor Pur存庫1000包，價(jià)格為3800盧比/包；Rahim Yar Khan 售價(jià)也為3800，庫存600包；Haroon Abad 有400包棉花，價(jià)格為3700盧比；Peer Mahal的500包棉花價(jià)格在3525盧比；Liaquat Pur有2047包棉花，報(bào)價(jià)在3600盧比；Rahim Yar Khan的1600包棉花，售價(jià)為3700盧比。

      投資者購棉積極，因?yàn)槊绹?月零售銷售上周三公布后，美國農(nóng)業(yè)部公布了09/10年度一季度棉花供/需報(bào)告，報(bào)告顯示棉花供應(yīng)量相比3月有小幅降低，不過幅度不顯著。中國政府正在準(zhǔn)備釋放50萬至70萬噸儲(chǔ)備棉，早將于本周開始拍賣，這個(gè)信息讓上周五的棉花價(jià)格大幅下降。

      上周美國出口詢盤減少。貿(mào)易合約本周持倉增加7875，到周四收盤時(shí)達(dá)到139150。

     商品期貨交易委員會(huì)（CFTC）報(bào)告，5月12日，多頭合約上漲16.0%，而空頭合約只上漲了15.1%。多頭合約增加了4063手，空頭合約增加了1313手。目前多頭合約總的成交額為39352手，而空頭合約為17356手。

      截止到5月12號(hào)，美國棉花看漲合約為563.241收，看跌合約為346.618包。其中250.865來自A，502.974來源G。

      根據(jù)投資銀行的數(shù)據(jù)，4月份的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)下降了0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，是近6個(gè)月來跌幅低的一個(gè)月?！皩?shí)際產(chǎn)量創(chuàng)下了10年來的低值，因?yàn)楫a(chǎn)能降到了低值。”紐約生產(chǎn)指數(shù)5月下降4.55點(diǎn)，4月下降14.65點(diǎn)，3月降低38.23。
      我們?nèi)匀唤ㄗh，一般商品價(jià)格環(huán)境將直接取決于美國股市的價(jià)格走勢(shì)?；鸾?jīng)理將繼續(xù)采用領(lǐng)導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)的晴雨表來預(yù)測(cè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇情況。股票價(jià)格從3月9日到5月8日期間飆升37%。令人擔(dān)憂的是目前的股票市值被夸大，產(chǎn)生的收益率比現(xiàn)在的收益多很多。

      上周零售額數(shù)據(jù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于預(yù)測(cè)值，這引人關(guān)注。在過去的2個(gè)季度內(nèi)，公司削減資本幅度達(dá)到20世紀(jì)30年代以來的高水平，消減庫存，包括大的清算記錄。

      在連續(xù)10周的上漲后， 上周棉花價(jià)格大逆轉(zhuǎn)。雖然去年年底的降幅已經(jīng)下降很多，糾正嚴(yán)重超買的狀態(tài)，扭轉(zhuǎn)股市下跌的態(tài)勢(shì)，并指出短期內(nèi)下降的趨勢(shì)。在目前的情況先，棉花市場雖然從周五的跌勢(shì)中有所緩解，但是還沒有扭轉(zhuǎn)的潛能。

      棉花市場似乎并沒有得到商業(yè)的支持，市場的急劇放緩打破了買方市場引發(fā)的極端超買狀態(tài)，并且中國將盡快釋放他們的一些戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備。普通概念棉花相比其他商品來說被低估，并且買家在過去2個(gè)月內(nèi)購買積極，中國目前的局勢(shì)表示準(zhǔn)備拋售儲(chǔ)備棉，但是日程未定。但是貿(mào)易商相信月底前將有272萬噸棉花進(jìn)入國內(nèi)市場。

      推動(dòng)棉花市場價(jià)格大幅下跌的會(huì)議在上周五召開。在近期棉花價(jià)格被推動(dòng)，價(jià)格增長迅猛，銷量激增后，棉花7月合約降低到至5月1日來的低水平，因?yàn)楣?yīng)短缺，股票市場疲軟，需求放緩。上周棉花市場超買對(duì)出口銷量下降形成壓力。本周二可能達(dá)到一個(gè)新高，由于本周初有更多的技術(shù)性拋盤。

      交易商承諾報(bào)告顯示，市場有積極的下降的趨勢(shì)，底部資金建立一個(gè)更重要的凈多頭資金，但指數(shù)基金銷售是一個(gè)關(guān)切的公牛隊(duì)。從眾資金凈買家購買了4709手，購買凈多頭合同27150。這是鮮明的合同，他們的凈多頭部資金減少2082手，為56650手。圖表模式是消極和市場短期內(nèi)似乎沒有減緩銷售的消息。 
       動(dòng)量研究趨向高層次偏低，我們應(yīng)加快行動(dòng)，打破跌勢(shì)。市場連續(xù)18天下跌顯示，中期將延續(xù)下跌趨勢(shì)。這是一個(gè)看跌市場。