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2019/10棉花產量下降

 

Cotton production continues slide in 2019/10 
 

USDA’s first 2019/10 world production forecast is 106.5 million bales, down 1.3 percent from the 2019/09 estimate. If realized, 2019/10 production will be the third consecutive year of decline in world output. China is expected to account for most of the global production decline in 2019/10 with a crop forecast at 33 million bales, down 2.8 million bales (8 percent) from 2019/09. Production in 2019/10 is also expected to decline in Brazil to 5.5 million bales (5 percent) and in Uzbekistan to 4.5 million bales (8 percent) from the 2019/09 crop estimate.

 

 The impact of these declines on global production is expected to be slightly cushioned by rebounds in Australia and India. As shown in figure, the 2019/10 Australia crop is forecast at 1.9 million bales, up 31 percent from 2019/09. The prolonged drought in Australia in recent years has been giving way to increased precipitation and replenished irrigation supplies. In India, the 2019/10 crop is forecast at 25 million bales, up almost 9 percent from the 2019/09 crop estimate. This unprecedented output in India is expected to result from a combination of continued government support, increased area and yield, and the extensive use of the better yielding Bt cotton varieties.

 

                              2019/10棉花產量下降
      美國農業(yè)部首次預測2019/10棉花產量是1億650萬包,與2019/09年度的預測相比,下降了1.3個百分點。如果預測準確的話,2019/10年度的產量將是連續(xù)第三年下降。中國的棉花產量在占大部分,預期將達到33萬包,相比2019/09年度降低了2.8萬包,下降8個百分點。巴西2019/10年度的產量為550萬包,降低5個百分點。烏茲別克斯坦的產量為450萬包,下降8個點。

      產量下降對澳大利亞和印度經濟反彈造成沖擊。2019/10澳洲棉花預期產值有190萬包,增長31%。由于長期干旱,澳大利亞近年來全力增加降雨量和補充灌溉用品。印度預計2019/10年度作物預測產量是25萬包,與2019/09年度的估計值相比,增幅為9%。 這一史無前例的產量預測得到印度政府的清理支持,增加棉花種植面積,增加棉花產量,運用效益更好的Bt棉花種子。

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